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Bochum 3–3 SV Wehen

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Aug 24, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Schlager

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win47%2.09
SV Wehen win27%3.80
Draw26%3.79

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Wehen −0.553%1.83
Bochum −0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.64
Under41%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Manuel Schäffler · SV Wehen
19'⚽Maximilian Dittgen · SV Wehen
45'⚽Manuel Schäffler · SV Wehen
56'⚽Ulrich Bapoh · Bochum
87'⚽Jordi Osei-Tutu · Bochum
88'🟨Sebastian Maier · Bochum
90'🟨Silvère Ganvoula · Bochum
90'🟨Miloš Pantović · Bochum
90'🟥Ulrich Bapoh · Bochum
90'🟨Niklas Dams · SV Wehen
90'⚽ (pen)Silvère Ganvoula · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
23Shots16
9On target7
7Corners3
12Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumSV Wehen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.32—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.49
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days569.00934.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.09—
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.20—
corners against avg (last 5)7.80—
corners for avg (last 5)2.60—
corners volatility (last 10)2.18—
defensive leak (last 5)0.10—
dominance (last 5)0.41—
elo1462.111357.91
elo momentum (last 5)-16.07-26.95
eye test v1-0.450.62
eye trend v1-0.13—
first sub minute (last 10)52.9036.00
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.680.50
league points1.000.00
league rank16.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win5.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2073.67
possession avg (last 5)50.0046.33
rest days7.777.00
season ppg0.330.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80—
shots for avg (last 5)12.00—
skill v10.03-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)5.805.33
sot for avg (last 10)4.40—
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.33
squad age26.0925.77
state index-0.48-1.14
sterile dominance v10.20-1.41
threat rate (last 10)0.25—
threat rate (last 3)0.250.39
threat rate (last 5)0.220.39
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00