← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Aug 23, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 50% | 1.96 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 25% | 3.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.82 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Borna Sosa · VfB Stuttgart |
| 27' | 🟨 | Holger Badstuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟨 | Borna Sosa · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟥 | Borna Sosa · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Didavi · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.62 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 22.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1452.31 | 1613.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.43 | 37.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 25.85 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |