← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Aug 17, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 18% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Joakim Nilsson · Bielefeld |
| 46' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 52' | 🟨 | Filip Kusić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 61' | ⚽ | Fabian Klos · Bielefeld |
| 76' | ⚽ | Christoph Daferner · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 81' | 🟨 | Manuel Prietl · Bielefeld |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipp Zulechner · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | SchücoArena |
| coach days | 259.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1518.57 | 1462.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.48 | 34.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.77 | 12.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |