← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Mon, Aug 5, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Nurnberg win | 31% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jeremy Dudziak · Hamburger SV |
| 30' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tim Handwerker · Nurnberg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | ⚽ | Khaled Narey · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Tim Handwerker · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 185.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1516.25 | 1543.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.80 | -24.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 9.31 | 8.29 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 22.68 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |