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Erzgebirge AUE 3–2 SV Wehen

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 Β· Sun, Aug 4, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: R. Kempter

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE win38%2.56
SV Wehen win34%2.87
Draw28%3.45

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE +052%1.85
SV Wehen +048%2.04

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Florian Krüger · Erzgebirge AUE
22'🟨Marvin Ajani · SV Wehen
35'⚽Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE
36'🟨Phillip Tietz · SV Wehen
40'🟨Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE
43'⚽Phillip Tietz · SV Wehen
48'🟨Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE
55'🟨Sâren Gonther · Erzgebirge AUE
75'🟨Jeremias Lorch · SV Wehen
78'🟨Sebastian Mrowca · SV Wehen
82'⚽

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots23
6On target7
1Corners5
15Fouls20
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzgebirge AUESV Wehen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.37β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.46β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.43β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.49β€”
cards avg (last 5)2.000.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueErzgebirgsstadion
Tom Baumgart
Β· Erzgebirge AUE
89'⚽Maximilian Dittgen · SV Wehen
90'🟨Marko MihojeviΔ‡ Β· Erzgebirge AUE
90'🟨Maximilian Dittgen · SV Wehen
coach days3.00914.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.16β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.60β€”
corners against avg (last 5)5.00β€”
corners for avg (last 5)1.40β€”
corners volatility (last 10)1.70β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.08β€”
dominance (last 5)0.46β€”
elo1456.281377.12
elo momentum (last 5)38.045.36
eye test v10.34β€”
eye trend v10.34β€”
first sub minute (last 10)52.90β€”
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.67β€”
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.60β€”
possession avg (last 5)45.20β€”
rest days7.007.00
season ppg3.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60β€”
shots for avg (last 5)11.80β€”
skill v1-0.36β€”
sot against avg (last 5)4.60β€”
sot for avg (last 10)4.00β€”
sot for avg (last 3)5.33β€”
sot for avg (last 5)5.00β€”
squad age27.8325.27
state index0.29-0.51
sterile dominance v1-0.49β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.25β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.27β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.27β€”
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00