← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Aug 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 47% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
| Dresden win | 26% | 3.82 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 56% | 1.70 |
| Dresden −0.25 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sascha Horvath · Dresden |
| 45' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 48' | 🟨 | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Dresden |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 67' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 80' | ⚽ | Manuel Stiefler · Karlsruhe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Wildparkstadion |
| coach days | 732.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1379.14 | 1463.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.91 | -6.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.13 | 24.01 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |