← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Aug 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 47% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
| Dresden win | 26% | 3.82 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 56% | 1.70 |
| Dresden −0.25 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand