⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Bochum 3–3 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Aug 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win39%2.45
Bochum win33%2.90
Draw27%3.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld +054%1.81
Bochum +046%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

52'🟨Cebio Soukou · Bielefeld
53'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
55'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
60'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
74'⚽ (pen)Danny Blum · Bochum
75'🟨Danilo Soares · Bochum
75'🟨Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
79'⚽Silvère Ganvoula · Bochum
80'🟨Silvère Ganvoula · Bochum
85'⚽Simon Zoller · Bochum
90'⚽ (og)Anthony Losilla · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots15
8On target7
4Corners5
9Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.650.78
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days547.00244.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.802.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.07
dominance (last 5)0.430.55
elo1468.181518.28
elo momentum (last 5)-8.7340.45
eye test v1-0.030.65
eye trend v1-0.170.14
first sub minute (last 10)60.1061.00
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.690.72
matches since blank2.0020.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8082.80
possession avg (last 5)52.8054.20
rest days5.133.92
season ppg0.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.403.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.8015.00
skill v10.070.89
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
state index-0.210.60
sterile dominance v10.250.18
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.190.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40