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Regensburg 3–1 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Jul 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Schröder

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win43%2.24
Bochum win30%3.20
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum −0.2551%1.93
Regensburg −0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'⚽Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
50'⚽Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg
65'🟨Simon Zoller · Bochum
70'🟨Andreas Geipl · Regensburg
75'⚽ (pen)Danny Blum · Bochum
88'🟨Ulrich Bapoh · Bochum
90'🟨Tom Baack · Regensburg
90'⚽Tom Baack · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots16
6On target4
5Corners3
13Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.67
cards avg (last 5)3.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Regensburg
coach days757.00542.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-4.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.402.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.08
dominance (last 5)0.520.44
elo1481.341480.59
elo momentum (last 5)-0.715.42
eye test v10.40-0.32
eye trend v1-0.450.15
first sub minute (last 10)68.2062.60
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.720.73
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6076.20
possession avg (last 5)49.6051.00
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.6011.60
skill v1-0.69-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age26.5926.78
state index-0.02-0.17
sterile dominance v1-1.240.25
threat rate (last 10)0.380.24
threat rate (last 3)0.350.23
threat rate (last 5)0.370.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40