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Albacete 4–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2019 · Fri, Jul 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win37%2.62
Zaragoza win33%2.92
Draw30%3.31

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete +053%1.81
Zaragoza +047%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.84
Over47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (pen)Maikel Mesa · Albacete
22'⚽Nicolás Gorosito · Albacete
29'⚽ (pen)Burgui · Zaragoza
33'⚽Daniel Ojeda · Albacete
46'⚽Daniel Ojeda · Albacete
62'🟨Enrique Clemente · Zaragoza
73'🟨Maikel Mesa · Albacete
80'🟨Javi Acuña · Albacete
82'🟨Jannick Buyla · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
9Shots7
6On target3
3Corners7
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.700.55
cards avg (last 5)2.603.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
coach days777.00594.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.351.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.18
dominance (last 5)0.520.46
elo1442.471498.19
elo momentum (last 5)-8.81-54.83
eye test v1-0.40-0.51
eye trend v1-0.210.43
first sub minute (last 10)51.2059.10
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.750.57
league points47.0065.00
league rank21.004.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.009.00
matches since win5.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8077.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0051.00
rest days3.974.97
scorer concentration0.230.33
season ppg1.121.55
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.0010.80
skill v1-0.610.17
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age26.4127.14
state index-0.65-0.88
sterile dominance v10.040.43
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.00