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Tenerife 1–2 Lugo

← Segunda División 2019 · Fri, Jul 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win54%1.81
Draw27%3.50
Lugo win18%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo −0.7553%1.83
Tenerife −0.7547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
54'⚽Cristian Herrera · Lugo
60'🟥Jaime Seoane · Lugo
70'⚽Luis Milla · Tenerife
73'🟨Hacen · Lugo
82'🟨Lluis Lopez · Tenerife
90'⚽Hacen · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots5
5On target4
11Corners2
15Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.680.63
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
coach days229.0046.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.083.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.12
dominance (last 5)0.320.42
elo1536.801427.35
elo momentum (last 5)26.4323.05
eye test v1-0.43-1.03
eye trend v1-0.16-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)59.2048.90
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.830.67
league points61.0046.00
league rank7.0022.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4069.60
possession avg (last 5)51.0044.80
rest days3.975.06
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.451.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.40-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.608.40
skill v10.23-1.03
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.60
squad age25.9328.08
state index0.07-0.38
sterile dominance v10.86-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.17
threat rate (last 5)0.150.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80