⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Elche CF 2–0 Albacete

← Segunda División 2019 · Mon, Jul 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win37%2.62
Draw33%2.90
Albacete win29%3.31

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −0.2556%1.74
Elche CF −0.2544%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.45
Over34%2.81

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟥Manuel Fuster · Albacete
45'🟨Dani Calvo · Elche CF
45'🟨Víctor Rodríguez · Elche CF
49'🟨Maikel Mesa · Albacete
52'⚽Jonathas · Elche CF
71'🟨Jonathas · Elche CF
73'🟨Ivan Kecojević · Albacete
90'⚽Jonathas · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots5
3On target2
5Corners1
13Fouls13
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.130.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.170.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.530.72
cards avg (last 5)3.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
coach days893.00773.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.10
congestion 21d5.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.182.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.08
dominance (last 5)0.510.60
elo1496.481453.14
elo momentum (last 5)-14.3512.05
eye test v1-0.94-0.18
eye trend v1-0.18-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)52.2053.50
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.800.83
league points55.0047.00
league rank11.0020.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2071.40
possession avg (last 5)58.6051.40
rest days6.094.09
scorer concentration0.180.23
season ppg1.341.15
shot diff avg (last 5)1.603.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0010.60
skill v11.20-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.20
squad age26.9626.62
state index-0.22-0.14
sterile dominance v11.230.01
threat rate (last 10)0.180.24
threat rate (last 3)0.150.21
threat rate (last 5)0.180.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60