← Segunda División 2019 · Wed, Jul 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Víctor Areces
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina win | 39% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.81 |
| Lugo win | 27% | 3.55 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Ponferradina −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over | 34% | 2.89 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Marcelo Djaló · Lugo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Hacen · Lugo |
| 36' | 🟨 | Manu Barreiro · Lugo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Roberto Canella · Lugo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kaxe · Ponferradina |
| 67' | 🟨 | Oscar Sielva · Ponferradina |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mathieu Peybernes · Lugo |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Manu Barreiro · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ponferradina | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio El Toralín |
| coach days | 768.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1436.89 | 1413.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.33 | 0.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 51.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 29.23 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |