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Almeria 1–2 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Jul 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win39%2.46
Draw32%3.00
Tenerife win29%3.34

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.2553%1.83
Almeria −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.59
Over40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Darwin Núñez · Almeria
28'🟨César de la Hoz · Almeria
36'🟨Francisco Villalba · Almeria
37'⚽ (pen)Luis Milla · Tenerife
48'🟨Joaquín Fernández · Almeria
59'🟨Álex Muñoz · Tenerife
84'🟨José Corpas · Almeria
86'🟨Iker Undabarrena · Tenerife
90'🟥Iván Balliu · Almeria
90'⚽Álex Bermejo Escribano · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots15
4On target3
2Corners2
12Fouls10
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.640.62
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.590.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.720.66
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
coach days3.00216.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d7.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.24
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.963.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.05
dominance (last 5)0.430.48
elo1550.751527.00
elo momentum (last 5)19.2837.57
eye test v10.240.38
eye trend v10.560.28
first sub minute (last 10)50.3061.00
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.730.81
league points63.0056.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)52.8052.00
rest days3.004.00
scorer concentration0.170.24
season ppg1.621.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.0012.60
skill v10.160.55
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
squad age25.7926.61
state index0.150.43
sterile dominance v10.770.50
threat rate (last 10)0.170.21
threat rate (last 3)0.170.14
threat rate (last 5)0.160.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80