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Real Racing Club de Santander 1–2 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Jul 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win50%1.93
Draw29%3.30
Real Racing Club de Santander win21%4.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF +0.550%1.93
Real Racing Club de Santander +0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽Guillermo · Real Racing Club de Santander
37'🟨Manu · Real Racing Club de Santander
49'🟨Víctor Rodríguez · Elche CF
54'🟨Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
57'🟨Aristote Nkaka · Real Racing Club de Santander
60'🟨Inaki Olaortua · Real Racing Club de Santander
63'⚽ (pen)Fidel · Elche CF
65'🟨Nico Hidalgo · Real Racing Club de Santander
72'⚽Jonathas · Elche CF
79'🟨— · Real Racing Club de Santander

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots16
2On target6
2Corners6
19Fouls23
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Racing Club de SantanderElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.450.52
cards avg (last 5)3.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCampos de Sport de El Sardinero
3.60
coach days154.00884.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.653.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.07
dominance (last 5)0.430.41
elo1366.811498.22
elo momentum (last 5)-20.51-13.06
eye test v1-0.94-0.96
eye trend v10.35-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)47.4050.10
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.58—
league points31.0052.00
league rank23.009.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win6.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8058.00
rest days2.803.80
scorer concentration0.270.18
season ppg0.791.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.208.80
skill v1-0.251.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.302.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.00
squad age27.6027.02
state index-1.25-0.48
sterile dominance v10.491.39
threat rate (last 10)0.180.16
threat rate (last 3)0.170.18
threat rate (last 5)0.170.15
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.00