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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0–0 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2019 · Thu, Jul 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Trujillo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win55%1.75
Draw28%3.51
Málaga CF win17%5.89

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.7551%1.93
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.62
Over40%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
29'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
32'🟨— · Málaga CF
33'🟨— · Málaga CF
37'🟨Antonio Luna · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
41'🟨David Lombán · Málaga CF
65'🟨Tete Morente · Málaga CF
81'🟨— · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots9
2On target3
5Corners4
20Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.570.46
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
3.40
coach days489.00183.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.07
corner diff avg (last 5)4.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)1.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.153.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.10
dominance (last 5)0.600.52
elo1531.551510.03
elo momentum (last 5)-10.25-5.52
eye test v10.180.03
eye trend v1-0.040.16
first sub minute (last 10)53.3055.30
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v1—0.76
league points51.0045.00
league rank10.0019.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4075.40
possession avg (last 5)59.0047.80
rest days3.094.09
scorer concentration0.110.36
season ppg1.341.22
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.00
skill v10.76-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.40
squad age27.3627.23
state index-0.26-0.13
sterile dominance v10.810.18
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20