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Numancia 1–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Jun 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win36%2.77
Draw33%2.89
Oviedo win31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia +053%1.85
Oviedo +047%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.51
Over35%2.71

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
24'⚽Higinio Marín · Numancia
33'🟨Bernardo · Numancia
45'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
45'🟨Héctor Hernández · Numancia
50'🟨Erik Morán · Numancia
63'🟥Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots11
2On target3
3Corners5
19Fouls13
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.550.54
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos
coach days393.00148.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.50
elo1424.801493.50
elo momentum (last 5)-51.5419.39
eye test v1-0.39-1.03
eye trend v10.470.03
first sub minute (last 10)58.1058.50
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.590.74
league points44.0045.00
league rank19.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win11.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8069.60
possession avg (last 5)60.4047.20
rest days4.002.91
scorer concentration0.250.23
season ppg1.191.22
shot diff avg (last 5)3.000.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.20
skill v10.80-0.87
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.80
squad age27.9027.31
state index-1.310.14
sterile dominance v11.00-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.180.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.00