⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Málaga CF 2–0 Girona

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Jun 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muñiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win37%2.59
Draw33%2.87
Málaga CF win29%3.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF +0.2555%1.78
Girona +0.2545%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Miguel Cifuentes · Málaga CF
22'🟥Cristian Rivera · Girona
43'🟨Diego González · Málaga CF
43'🟨Alex Granell · Girona
49'⚽Armando Sadiku · Málaga CF
54'🟨Keidi Bare · Málaga CF
74'🟥Adrián González · Málaga CF
82'🟨Miguel Cifuentes · Málaga CF
84'🟨Armando Sadiku · Málaga CF
86'🟨Juanpe · Girona
90'🟨Sergio Buenacasa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots5
4On target1
2Corners1
27Fouls21
6Yellow cards2
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.460.55
cards avg (last 5)2.403.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
· Málaga CF
90'🟨Mohamed Benkhemassa · Málaga CF
coach days179.0027.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.281.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.05
dominance (last 5)0.510.55
elo1495.931534.99
elo momentum (last 5)-30.29-11.46
eye test v10.01-0.45
eye trend v10.18-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)51.0061.00
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.720.78
league points42.0053.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4078.60
possession avg (last 5)46.6051.60
rest days5.004.00
scorer concentration0.350.49
season ppg1.171.47
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.402.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.209.80
skill v1-0.350.29
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
squad age27.2729.04
state index-0.610.05
sterile dominance v1-0.110.56
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20