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Cadiz 0–2 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Jun 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win36%2.67
Draw33%2.89
Tenerife win31%3.22

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz +054%1.78
Tenerife +046%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.46
Over34%2.89

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟥José Mari · Cadiz
39'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
45'🟨Fali · Cadiz
45'⚽Dani Gómez · Tenerife
47'⚽Dani Gómez · Tenerife
56'🟨Álex Muñoz · Tenerife
73'🟨Álvaro Giménez · Cadiz
82'🟨Ramon Mierez · Tenerife
90'🟨Iza Carcelén · Cadiz
90'🟨Iker Undabarrena · Tenerife
90'🟨Edu Ramos · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots4
3On target3
9Corners8
10Fouls17
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.66
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramón de Carranza
coach days1548.00209.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.533.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.430.67
elo1554.551510.37
elo momentum (last 5)1.9819.43
eye test v1-1.250.16
eye trend v10.110.36
first sub minute (last 10)47.6063.70
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.720.77
league points65.0052.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet11.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2079.80
possession avg (last 5)42.8056.40
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.190.19
season ppg1.761.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.207.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.0014.60
skill v1-1.110.73
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.40
squad age29.6926.44
state index-0.100.42
sterile dominance v1-0.270.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.31
threat rate (last 5)0.190.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40