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Albacete 0–0 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2019 · Wed, Jun 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win39%2.45
Draw34%2.80
Las Palmas win27%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.2552%1.88
Albacete −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.44
Over33%2.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Karim Azamoum · Albacete
19'🟨Alberto de la Bella · Las Palmas
27'🟨Javi Castellano · Las Palmas
45'🟨Cristian López · Las Palmas
59'🟨Mauricio Lemos · Las Palmas
67'🟨Roman Zozulya · Albacete
69'🟨Maikel Mesa · Albacete
86'🟨— · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots5
4On target2
6Corners5
14Fouls14
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.500.56
cards avg (last 5)3.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
coach days754.00481.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.304.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.450.56
elo1442.091467.11
elo momentum (last 5)2.50-7.16
eye test v1-1.27-0.42
eye trend v10.02-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)57.7047.30
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.650.65
league points39.0048.00
league rank20.0013.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)58.4072.40
possession avg (last 5)35.4050.60
rest days3.094.09
scorer concentration0.230.24
season ppg1.111.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.402.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.0010.20
skill v1-2.75-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.60
squad age28.6127.84
state index-0.34-0.31
sterile dominance v1-1.590.20
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00