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Elche CF 0–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2019 · Tue, Jun 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win39%2.51
Draw32%3.01
RC Deportivo La Coruña win29%3.34

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.2554%1.81
Elche CF −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.56
Over38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟥Gaku Shibasaki · RC Deportivo La Coruña
35'🟨Luis Ruiz · RC Deportivo La Coruña
37'🟨— · Elche CF
54'🟨Tekio · Elche CF
65'⚽Hugo Vallejo · RC Deportivo La Coruña
74'🟨Fidel · Elche CF
78'🟨Tekio · Elche CF
78'🟥Tekio · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots9
3On target2
10Corners5
13Fouls8
4Yellow cards1
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.570.56
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
1.00
coach days873.00205.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.022.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.14
dominance (last 5)0.400.47
elo1510.831471.27
elo momentum (last 5)20.58-13.33
eye test v1-0.43-0.54
eye trend v1-0.080.08
first sub minute (last 10)55.4050.00
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.10
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.790.67
league points50.0040.00
league rank5.0019.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8083.40
possession avg (last 5)54.0055.40
rest days4.003.10
scorer concentration0.190.20
season ppg1.391.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.6011.00
skill v10.371.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
squad age27.7026.70
state index0.22-0.72
sterile dominance v10.860.95
threat rate (last 10)0.170.19
threat rate (last 3)0.110.20
threat rate (last 5)0.170.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40