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Elche CF 1–0 Girona

← Segunda División 2019 · Fri, Jun 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win38%2.59
Draw33%2.94
Elche CF win30%3.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF +0.2555%1.77
Girona +0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.49
Over35%2.79

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Juanpe · Girona
42'🟨Aday Benítez · Girona
47'⚽Dani Escriche · Elche CF
52'🟨Édgar Badía · Elche CF
57'🟨Óscar Gil · Elche CF
64'🟨Christian Stuani · Girona
69'🟨Andoni López · Elche CF
78'🟨Joaquín Zeballos · Girona
90'🟨Samu Sáiz · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots13
4On target6
4Corners3
18Fouls16
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.640.50
cards avg (last 5)3.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
coach days869.0018.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.181.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.04
dominance (last 5)0.390.57
elo1501.581535.44
elo momentum (last 5)2.86-2.85
eye test v1-0.74-0.34
eye trend v1-0.03-0.45
first sub minute (last 10)54.7061.50
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.740.70
league points47.0050.00
league rank8.006.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0075.40
possession avg (last 5)56.0052.20
rest days4.002.91
scorer concentration0.190.48
season ppg1.341.47
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.803.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.4010.00
skill v10.530.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.801.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
squad age27.6929.18
state index-0.100.10
sterile dominance v11.060.44
threat rate (last 10)0.180.23
threat rate (last 3)0.130.16
threat rate (last 5)0.160.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20