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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–3 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Mar 8, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win50%2.05
Draw29%3.34
Elche CF win21%4.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.552%1.87
Elche CF −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽ (pen)Mario Suárez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
45'🟨Luis Advíncula · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
45'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
58'⚽Óscar Gil · Elche CF
63'🟥Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
67'⚽Pere Milla · Elche CF
73'🟨Óscar Gil · Elche CF
79'⚽Dani Escriche · Elche CF
84'🟨Antonio Milić · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
88'⚽Joni Montiel · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots12
9On target5
3Corners4
20Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.690.59
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
🟨
Alejandro Catena · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
90'🟨Fidel · Elche CF
3.00
coach days373.00766.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.803.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.213.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.08
dominance (last 5)0.540.49
elo1546.761502.62
elo momentum (last 5)8.214.35
eye test v10.04-0.54
eye trend v10.26-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)51.7057.70
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.840.76
league points41.0043.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0081.60
possession avg (last 5)58.2056.20
rest days7.656.83
scorer concentration0.130.19
season ppg1.371.34
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.60
skill v10.090.89
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.00
squad age28.0525.65
state index0.380.04
sterile dominance v10.410.93
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.17
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80