← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Iñaki Bikandi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Almeria win | 46% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Fuenlabrada win | 23% | 4.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Almeria −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Fuenlabrada −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.49 |
| Over | 36% | 2.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 0 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 26 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos |