⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Ponferradina 0–0 Extremadura

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Feb 16, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ponferradina win50%1.95
Draw31%3.10
Extremadura win19%5.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Extremadura −0.550%1.95
Ponferradina −0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.55
Over38%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨José Antonio Ríos · Ponferradina
32'🟨Fran Cruz · Extremadura
40'🟨Alejandro Díez Salomón · Extremadura
46'🟨Franco Russo · Ponferradina
54'🟨Emmanuel Lomotey · Extremadura
59'🟨Roberto Olabe · Extremadura
86'🟨Casto · Extremadura
90'🟨Emmanuel Lomotey · Extremadura
90'🟥Emmanuel Lomotey · Extremadura

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots9
3On target0
6Corners1
10Fouls19
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPonferradinaExtremadura
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.420.49
cards avg (last 5)2.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Toralín
coach days625.00380.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.232.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.20
dominance (last 5)0.520.53
elo1460.701411.60
elo momentum (last 5)-0.18-19.11
eye test v1-0.000.26
eye trend v10.050.48
first sub minute (last 10)62.4055.50
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.690.68
league points36.0029.00
league rank14.0022.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2070.60
possession avg (last 5)45.6047.20
rest days7.268.09
scorer concentration0.380.16
season ppg1.291.04
shot diff avg (last 5)0.601.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.40
skill v1-0.84-0.79
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
squad age27.8728.57
state index-0.16-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.62-0.57
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60