← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Feb 9, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 39% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.02 |
| Lugo win | 30% | 3.42 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Elche CF +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.54 |
| Over | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Yanis Rahmani · Lugo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jaime Seoane · Lugo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cristian Herrera · Lugo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Óscar Gil · Elche CF |
| 61' | ⚽ | José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mathieu Peybernes · Lugo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ramon Folch · Elche CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nino · Elche CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Nino · Elche CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 70.00 | 738.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1389.15 | 1511.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.03 | 13.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 25.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.09 | 7.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.50 | 28.47 |
| state index | -0.93 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |