⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Extremadura 2–4 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Extremadura win40%2.43
Draw32%3.00
Tenerife win28%3.57

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.2552%1.86
Extremadura −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.52
Over36%2.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Álex Alegría · Extremadura
27'⚽Shaq Moore · Tenerife
37'🟨Jose Antonio Pardo · Extremadura
39'⚽ (pen)Luis Milla · Tenerife
56'🟨Álex Alegría · Extremadura
56'🟥Álex Alegría · Extremadura
57'🟨Roberto Olabe · Extremadura
62'🟨Nikola Šipčić · Tenerife
63'⚽ (pen)Nono · Extremadura
76'⚽Dani Gómez · Tenerife
84'⚽Dani Gómez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
15Shots17
6On target7
5Corners1
12Fouls13
4Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.51
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.400.49
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
· Tenerife
90'⚽Óscar Pinchi · Extremadura
coach days372.0069.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.002.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.08
dominance (last 5)0.520.37
elo1427.031477.19
elo momentum (last 5)-4.9924.98
eye test v1-0.330.04
eye trend v10.660.16
first sub minute (last 10)58.1044.40
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.680.76
league points29.0035.00
league rank18.0013.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4074.40
possession avg (last 5)46.6042.40
rest days7.007.79
scorer concentration0.170.15
season ppg1.071.25
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.00
skill v1-0.96-0.74
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.60
squad age28.2427.11
state index-0.37-0.11
sterile dominance v1-0.53-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.240.19
threat rate (last 3)0.260.17
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80