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Lugo 1–0 Albacete

← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Jan 18, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win34%3.01
Draw34%2.90
Albacete win32%2.97

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete +051%1.93
Lugo +049%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.50
Over36%2.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Alberto Benito · Albacete
26'🟨Ivan Kecojević · Albacete
49'🟨Álvaro Jiménez · Albacete
57'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
60'⚽Cristian Herrera · Lugo
63'🟨Serge Leuko · Lugo
75'🟨Pedro · Albacete
87'🟨Edu Campabadal · Lugo
89'🟨Marcelo Djaló · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots16
4On target3
3Corners11
17Fouls10
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.560.64
cards avg (last 5)2.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Anxo Carro
coach days48.00596.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.123.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.410.48
elo1390.861458.71
elo momentum (last 5)-35.03-28.53
eye test v1-0.64-0.37
eye trend v10.230.07
first sub minute (last 10)56.4062.40
form points (last 5)1.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.730.68
league points22.0028.00
league rank21.0015.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win9.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4070.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6049.80
rest days2.933.97
scorer concentration0.380.25
season ppg0.921.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2011.60
skill v10.23-0.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.60
squad age28.1027.20
state index-1.35-0.64
sterile dominance v10.59-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.170.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.26
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.40