← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Jan 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 41% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Lugo win | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Almeria +0.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.68 |
| Over | 42% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Almeria |
| 28' | 🟨 | Iván Martos · Almeria |
| 42' | ⚽ | Juan Muñoz · Almeria |
| 58' | 🟨 | Edu Campabadal · Lugo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Darwin Núñez · Almeria |
| 67' | ⚽ | José Carlos Lazo · Almeria |
| 85' | 🟨 | Serge Leuko · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 34.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1410.17 | 1548.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.29 | 19.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 22.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 14.08 | 13.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.32 | 25.48 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |