← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 61% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
| Lugo win | 14% | 7.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo −1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Málaga CF −1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Armando Sadiku · Málaga CF |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mikel Villanueva · Málaga CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Tete Morente · Lugo |
| 50' | 🟨 | Serge Leuko · Lugo |
| 73' | 🟨 | Armando Sadiku · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juankar · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Benkhemassa · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Muñoz · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Peybernes · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcelo Djaló · Lugo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carlos Pita · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 264.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1506.36 | 1405.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.67 | -32.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.17 | 5.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 29.58 |
| state index | 0.08 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |