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Numancia 2–0 Girona

← Segunda División 2019 · Fri, Dec 13, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win37%2.57
Numancia win31%3.06
Draw31%3.09

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona +055%1.78
Numancia +045%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.73
Over44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Higinio Marín · Numancia
36'🟨Gerard Gumbau · Girona
60'🟨— · Numancia
71'🟨Ivan Calero · Numancia
76'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
80'🟨Alex Sola · Numancia
85'🟨Gus Ledes · Numancia
90'🟨Guillermo · Numancia
90'⚽ (pen)Guillermo · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots15
5On target5
3Corners3
20Fouls13
6Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.560.55
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos
coach days195.0073.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.763.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.06
dominance (last 5)0.520.53
elo1469.921573.83
elo momentum (last 5)-13.4722.94
eye test v1-0.390.20
eye trend v1-0.11-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)52.2059.80
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.680.59
league points29.0032.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6079.80
possession avg (last 5)52.8051.00
rest days5.135.38
scorer concentration0.260.48
season ppg1.451.60
shot diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.8013.20
skill v1-0.050.36
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.40
squad age26.8428.18
state index-0.400.55
sterile dominance v1-0.000.04
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60