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Lugo 0–0 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Dec 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: José López

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win39%2.55
Draw32%3.00
Lugo win30%3.54

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo +0.2552%1.88
RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.54
Over37%2.58

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Mujaid Sadick · RC Deportivo La Coruña
28'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
42'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
57'🟨Michele Somma · RC Deportivo La Coruña
64'🟨Luis Ruiz · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots12
2On target3
7Corners5
9Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.520.43
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Anxo Carro
3.00
coach days0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.802.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.363.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.290.53
elo1434.461454.39
elo momentum (last 5)7.45-32.16
eye test v1-1.10-0.74
eye trend v1-0.200.34
first sub minute (last 10)59.5058.90
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.770.57
league points20.0012.00
league rank16.0023.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.0017.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2071.80
possession avg (last 5)48.2054.40
rest days6.888.00
scorer concentration0.380.25
season ppg1.180.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.4011.80
skill v1-0.21-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)7.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.00
state index-0.41-1.21
sterile dominance v10.560.24
threat rate (last 10)0.190.20
threat rate (last 3)0.130.22
threat rate (last 5)0.150.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40