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Huesca 2–0 Ponferradina

← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Nov 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win60%1.61
Draw26%3.69
Ponferradina win14%7.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ponferradina −154%1.80
Huesca −146%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Pedro Mosquera · Huesca
22'🟨Isi Palazón · Ponferradina
24'⚽Eugeni Valderrama · Huesca
30'🟨Mikel Rico · Huesca
60'🟨Pablo Trigueros Estrada · Ponferradina
67'🟨Isi Palazón · Ponferradina
67'🟥Isi Palazón · Ponferradina
69'⚽Sergio Gómez · Huesca
78'🟨Toni Datković · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots11
6On target2
3Corners2
12Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaPonferradina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.720.63
cards avg (last 5)3.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days175.00540.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.630.53
elo1576.931454.70
elo momentum (last 5)-8.8734.37
eye test v10.48-0.27
eye trend v1-0.150.53
first sub minute (last 10)59.0048.00
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v1—0.64
league points29.0023.00
league rank3.0011.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8058.00
possession avg (last 5)58.2043.40
rest days7.296.33
scorer concentration0.160.29
season ppg1.711.44
shot diff avg (last 5)6.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.8013.20
skill v10.94-2.38
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.60
squad age28.3826.96
state index0.390.15
sterile dominance v10.52-1.57
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.33
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20