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RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–3 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Nov 10, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win53%1.86
Draw29%3.30
Elche CF win18%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.552%1.86
Elche CF −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.56
Over39%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
13'⚽Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
14'🟨Álex Bergantiños · RC Deportivo La Coruña
15'🟨Yacine Qasmi · Elche CF
26'⚽Víctor Mollejo Carpintero · RC Deportivo La Coruña
31'🟨Francisco Montero · RC Deportivo La Coruña
51'🟨Víctor Mollejo Carpintero · RC Deportivo La Coruña
57'⚽ (pen)Fidel · Elche CF
75'🟨Juan Cruz · Elche CF
79'🟨Salvador Ruiz · RC Deportivo La Coruña
83'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots11
5On target5
6Corners3
25Fouls11
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.540.62
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Abanca-Riazor
🟨
Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
87'⚽Pere Milla · Elche CF
2.00
coach days40.00647.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.15
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.492.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.490.41
elo1489.381462.25
elo momentum (last 5)-32.760.65
eye test v1-0.90-0.61
eye trend v1-0.230.15
first sub minute (last 10)61.7059.70
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.590.78
league points11.0019.00
league rank23.0014.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win14.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2073.20
possession avg (last 5)53.6045.00
rest days7.836.67
scorer concentration0.270.33
season ppg0.731.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6010.00
skill v1-0.15-0.72
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.00
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.20
squad age27.8926.96
state index-1.09-0.17
sterile dominance v10.39-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40