← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Oct 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
| Lugo win | 21% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Numancia −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Alex Sola · Lugo |
| 25' | ⚽ | Curro · Numancia |
| 36' | 🟨 | Higinio Marín · Numancia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mathieu Peybernes · Lugo |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Curro · Numancia |
| 50' | 🟨 | José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Manu Barreiro · Lugo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Carlos Gutiérrez · Numancia |
| 81' | ⚽ | Guillermo · Numancia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos |
| coach days | 147.00 | 390.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1449.57 | 1427.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.73 | -17.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.17 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 28.46 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |