← Segunda División 2019 · Wed, Oct 16, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fuenlabrada win | 41% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
| Zaragoza win | 29% | 3.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fuenlabrada +0 | 59% | 1.63 |
| Zaragoza +0 | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Fernando Torres |