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Real Racing Club de Santander 0–3 Girona

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Oct 6, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win35%3.40
Real Racing Club de Santander win34%3.15
Draw31%3.08

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona +055%1.77
Real Racing Club de Santander +045%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.57
Over39%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Christian Stuani · Girona
12'🟨Mario Ortiz Ruiz · Real Racing Club de Santander
42'🟨Juan Carlos · Girona
43'🟨Gerard Gumbau · Girona
58'🟨Pedro Alcala · Girona
70'⚽Gerard Gumbau · Girona
80'🟨David Barral · Real Racing Club de Santander
81'🟨Christian Stuani · Girona
86'⚽Alex Granell · Girona
90'🟨Juanpe · Girona

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots9
0On target3
2Corners3
13Fouls22
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Racing Club de SantanderGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.17
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.65
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCampos de Sport de El Sardinero
3.60
coach days523.005.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.461.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.12
dominance (last 5)0.380.44
elo1425.201566.86
elo momentum (last 5)24.96-16.99
eye test v1-0.59-1.15
eye trend v10.300.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.4454.30
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.670.76
league points9.0014.00
league rank19.0010.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)40.2053.80
rest days5.062.98
scorer concentration0.440.50
season ppg0.901.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.209.80
skill v1-1.270.40
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.333.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.00
squad age26.1528.38
state index-0.29-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.620.70
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00