← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Sep 21, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Víctor Areces
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 68% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.98 |
| Lugo win | 11% | 9.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Lugo −1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Carlos Pita · Lugo |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mathieu Peybernes · Lugo |
| 47' | 🟨 | Fernando Seoane · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Íñigo Eguaras · Zaragoza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Orest Lebedenko · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Romareda |
| coach days | 294.00 | 355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1534.38 | 1440.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.34 | 0.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 28.47 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |