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Huesca 3–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2019 · Sun, Aug 25, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Díaz de Mera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win46%2.14
Draw29%3.32
RC Deportivo La Coruña win25%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca −0.2554%1.83
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.59
Over40%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Eugeni Valderrama · Huesca
45'⚽Dani Raba · Huesca
51'🟨Pedro · RC Deportivo La Coruña
53'⚽Jorge Pulido · Huesca
72'⚽Christian Santos · RC Deportivo La Coruña
74'🟨Luisinho · Huesca
79'🟨Samuele Longo · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots8
6On target1
1Corners2
14Fouls20
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.62
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
0.20
coach days85.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.064.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.05
dominance (last 5)0.520.59
elo1589.531578.31
elo momentum (last 5)5.4836.90
eye test v10.110.72
eye trend v10.20-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)51.7067.00
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.27
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.800.80
matches since blank6.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0079.00
possession avg (last 5)48.4048.20
rest days6.967.04
season ppg3.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.405.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.0017.40
skill v10.000.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.80
squad age26.3928.60
state index0.200.91
sterile dominance v1-0.38-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.300.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00