← Segunda División 2019 · Sat, Aug 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 61% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Mirandes win | 14% | 7.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mirandes −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand