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Cosenza 3–1 Juve Stabia

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza win47%2.05
Draw27%3.51
Juve Stabia win25%3.76

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia −0.553%1.85
Cosenza −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Denis Tonucci · Juve Stabia
17'⚽Daniele Sciaudone · Cosenza
23'⚽ (pen)Emmanuel Rivière · Cosenza
31'⚽Denis Tonucci · Juve Stabia
35'🟨Daniele Sciaudone · Cosenza
39'🟨Francesco Di Mariano · Juve Stabia
64'🟨Luca Bittante · Cosenza
71'🟨Giacomo Calò · Juve Stabia
74'⚽Emmanuel Rivière · Cosenza
79'🟨Nicholas Allievi · Juve Stabia
80'🟨Pasquale Fazio · Juve Stabia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots28
8On target14
4Corners10
15Fouls17
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaJuve Stabia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.570.63
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days1338.001126.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.420.51
elo1463.601352.46
elo momentum (last 5)48.673.35
eye test v10.32-0.44
eye trend v10.350.02
first sub minute (last 10)60.5051.80
form points (last 5)12.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.640.60
league points43.0041.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.0017.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6073.60
possession avg (last 5)40.4050.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.230.27
season ppg1.161.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.200.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.60
skill v1-0.45-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
squad age28.9426.67
state index0.20-0.71
sterile dominance v1-1.10-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.330.25
threat rate (last 3)0.370.23
threat rate (last 5)0.330.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20