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Virtus Entella 2–3 Cittadella

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella win40%2.51
Virtus Entella win33%3.10
Draw28%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella +0.2555%1.77
Cittadella +0.2545%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.66
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Giuseppe Panico · Cittadella
5'⚽ (og)Alberto Rizzo · Virtus Entella
12'🟨Luca Ghiringhelli · Cittadella
21'⚽Giuseppe Panico · Cittadella
45'⚽Manuel De Luca · Virtus Entella
58'🟨Francesco Stanco · Cittadella
76'🟨Simone Andreis · Virtus Entella
80'🟨Alberto Rizzo · Cittadella
84'🟨Agostino Camigliano · Cittadella
87'⚽Francesco Stanco · Cittadella
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
14Shots15
6On target5
3Corners5
19Fouls25
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVirtus EntellaCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Chiavari
Jacopo Dezi
· Virtus Entella
3.40
coach days761.001857.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.981.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.18
dominance (last 5)0.590.44
elo1436.351469.06
elo momentum (last 5)5.42-54.84
eye test v10.19-0.34
eye trend v1-0.080.20
first sub minute (last 10)58.9055.50
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.550.67
league points48.0055.00
league rank12.005.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0075.40
possession avg (last 5)51.6050.60
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.210.31
season ppg1.301.49
shot diff avg (last 5)4.60-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.409.60
skill v10.33-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
squad age26.4726.79
state index-0.15-0.96
sterile dominance v1-0.090.24
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.320.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20