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Ascoli 2–4 Benevento

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 31, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win58%1.67
Draw25%3.86
Benevento win17%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli −0.7551%1.88
Benevento −0.7549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.72
Under45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Marco Sau · Benevento
32'⚽Federico Barba · Benevento
45'⚽Roberto Insigne · Benevento
49'⚽Leonardo Morosini · Ascoli
69'🟨Pasquale Schiattarella · Benevento
87'⚽Gabriele Moncini · Benevento
90'🟨Mirko Eramo · Ascoli
90'⚽Marcello Trotta · Ascoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
18Shots16
5On target7
7Corners2
18Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliBenevento
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.640.62
cards avg (last 5)3.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days60.00426.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.851.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.490.61
elo1412.651624.04
elo momentum (last 5)29.43-32.59
eye test v1-0.420.30
eye trend v1-0.120.55
first sub minute (last 10)55.9055.20
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v10.660.78
league points46.0083.00
league rank15.001.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2084.40
possession avg (last 5)46.8061.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.210.21
season ppg1.242.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.607.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6018.20
skill v1-0.551.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
squad age26.2027.46
state index-0.110.05
sterile dominance v1-0.540.51
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.37
threat rate (last 5)0.280.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40