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Cosenza 2–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza win43%2.25
Draw30%3.23
Pisa win28%3.55

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza −0.2551%1.91
Pisa −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
28'⚽Mirko Carretta · Cosenza
32'🟨Mirko Bruccini · Cosenza
75'🟨Gianmarco Ingrosso · Pisa
76'🟨Daniele Sciaudone · Cosenza
77'⚽Alessandro De Vitis · Pisa
90'🟨Raúl Asencio · Cosenza
90'⚽Raúl Asencio · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots12
4On target5
5Corners2
10Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.560.47
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days1331.00784.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.17
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.09
dominance (last 5)0.460.47
elo1427.571461.12
elo momentum (last 5)-2.4133.89
eye test v10.03-0.03
eye trend v1-0.14-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)61.1053.50
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.700.68
league points37.0050.00
league rank18.008.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6072.60
possession avg (last 5)48.0048.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.28
season ppg1.061.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.80
skill v10.05-0.52
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
squad age29.0626.76
state index-0.450.11
sterile dominance v1-0.18-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.290.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00