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Ascoli 2–2 Pordenone

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Serra

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win39%2.52
Draw32%3.02
Pordenone win30%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone −0.2555%1.78
Ascoli −0.2545%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Riccardo Bocalon · Pordenone
10'🟨Luca Ranieri · Ascoli
22'⚽Tommaso Pobega · Pordenone
24'🟨Davide Mazzocco · Pordenone
36'🟨Andreaw Gravillon · Ascoli
44'⚽Nikola Ninković · Ascoli
48'⚽Nikola Ninković · Ascoli
51'🟨Cristian Andreoni · Ascoli
79'🟨Alessandro Vogliacco · Pordenone

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots14
7On target5
6Corners3
16Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliPordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.12
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.670.57
cards avg (last 5)4.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days53.00890.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.607.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.571.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.08
dominance (last 5)0.380.52
elo1419.791489.49
elo momentum (last 5)53.077.38
eye test v1-0.44-0.61
eye trend v10.07-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)55.6055.70
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.690.65
league points45.0055.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2070.00
possession avg (last 5)40.0039.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.22
season ppg1.291.57
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.4014.00
skill v1-1.20-1.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
squad age25.1428.19
state index0.110.04
sterile dominance v1-0.75-1.69
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.290.38
threat rate (last 5)0.240.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80