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Juve Stabia 3–2 Chievo

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chievo win47%2.08
Draw29%3.40
Juve Stabia win25%3.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia +0.553%1.82
Chievo +0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Filip Đorđević · Chievo
45'🟨Luca Garritano · Chievo
62'🟨Francesco Di Mariano · Juve Stabia
73'⚽ (pen)Filip Đorđević · Chievo
76'⚽ (pen)Francesco Forte · Juve Stabia
82'⚽Magnus Troest · Juve Stabia
83'🟨Giacomo Ricci · Juve Stabia
85'⚽Alessandro Mallamo · Juve Stabia
88'🟨Francesco Di Mariano · Juve Stabia
88'🟥Francesco Di Mariano · Juve Stabia
90'🟨Filip Đorđević · Chievo
90'🟨Giovanni Di Noia · Chievo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots11
4On target2
4Corners2
13Fouls20
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricJuve StabiaChievo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.690.69
cards avg (last 5)4.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Romeo Menti
coach days1112.00138.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.831.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.09
dominance (last 5)0.520.53
elo1355.211492.02
elo momentum (last 5)-15.51-16.68
eye test v1-0.340.49
eye trend v10.180.25
first sub minute (last 10)51.6052.40
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.610.74
league points38.0047.00
league rank17.0010.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet14.003.00
matches since win6.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0083.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8056.60
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.290.17
season ppg1.121.38
shot diff avg (last 5)1.602.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.4015.40
skill v10.151.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.20
squad age27.1425.60
state index-0.87-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.020.41
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20