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Pisa 3–2 Trapani

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Robilotta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win37%2.63
Trapani win33%2.91
Draw30%3.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa +053%1.85
Trapani +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Alessandro Buongiorno · Trapani
21'🟨Nicholas Siega · Pisa
39'⚽Luca Vido · Pisa
42'🟨Mamadou Coulibaly · Trapani
50'🟨Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa
53'🟨Michele Marconi · Pisa
54'⚽Francesco Lisi · Pisa
55'🟨Stefano Scognamillo · Trapani
57'⚽Tomasz Kupisz · Trapani
63'🟨Mamadou Coulibaly · Trapani
63'🟥Mamadou Coulibaly · Trapani
64'⚽Filip Piszczek · Trapani
73'🟨Davide Moscardelli · Pisa
83'🟨Robert Gucher · Pisa
87'🟨Marco Pinato · Pisa
88'🟨Francesco Lisi · Pisa
90'⚽Michele Marconi · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots10
5On target4
2Corners2
20Fouls20
7Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaTrapani
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.510.53
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days777.00229.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.470.56
elo1452.631459.64
elo momentum (last 5)34.7050.96
eye test v1-0.090.59
eye trend v10.270.11
first sub minute (last 10)52.6057.00
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.690.72
league points47.0037.00
league rank9.0018.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6065.80
possession avg (last 5)42.4040.80
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.280.46
season ppg1.381.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.003.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.2015.40
skill v1-1.10-1.67
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.60
squad age27.6626.90
state index0.150.36
sterile dominance v1-0.76-2.02
threat rate (last 10)0.290.34
threat rate (last 3)0.260.44
threat rate (last 5)0.260.39
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80