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Cosenza 2–1 Perugia

← Serie B 2019 · Mon, Jul 13, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia win36%2.70
Cosenza win34%2.88
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Perugia +052%1.88
Cosenza +048%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.76
Over46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Mirko Bruccini · Cosenza
45'🟨Daniele Sciaudone · Cosenza
46'🟨Aleandro Rosi · Perugia
74'⚽Jaime Báez · Cosenza
78'⚽Diego Falcinelli · Perugia
80'🟨Angelo Corsi · Cosenza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots15
3On target3
4Corners5
15Fouls16
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaPerugia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.550.58
cards avg (last 5)3.203.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days1320.00194.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.471.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.50
elo1404.531428.42
elo momentum (last 5)3.61-5.74
eye test v10.33-0.59
eye trend v10.230.17
first sub minute (last 10)59.7051.20
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.640.70
league points31.0041.00
league rank19.0012.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.00
possession avg (last 5)46.4053.80
rest days2.912.91
scorer concentration0.240.39
season ppg0.941.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.40
skill v1-0.050.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.802.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
squad age28.3926.87
state index-0.62-0.60
sterile dominance v1-0.470.46
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80