⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Salernitana 2–1 Juve Stabia

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jul 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Salernitana win47%2.05
Draw29%3.25
Juve Stabia win24%4.14

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia −0.552%1.85
Salernitana −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟥Ramzi Aya · Salernitana
15'🟥Lamin Jallow · Salernitana
16'🟨Cedric Gondo · Salernitana
16'🟨Francesco Di Mariano · Juve Stabia
23'⚽Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Salernitana
42'🟨Alessandro Mallamo · Juve Stabia
47'🟨Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Salernitana
62'🟨Magnus Troest · Juve Stabia
63'🟨Giacomo Ricci · Juve Stabia
69'⚽Francesco Forte · Juve Stabia
72'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots18
6On target6
3Corners9
14Fouls23
4Yellow cards7
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSalernitanaJuve Stabia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.460.60
cards avg (last 5)4.004.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Arechi
Nicholas Allievi
· Juve Stabia
78'🟨Simone Calvano · Juve Stabia
81'⚽Cedric Gondo · Salernitana
86'🟨Patryk Dziczek · Salernitana
88'🟨Fabio Maistro · Salernitana
89'🟨Giacomo Calò · Juve Stabia
coach days368.001098.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.141.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.410.46
elo1428.841355.45
elo momentum (last 5)-8.83-10.59
eye test v1-0.43-0.42
eye trend v10.14-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)59.5059.20
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.630.63
league points44.0036.00
league rank9.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.0011.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)56.4050.20
rest days4.094.00
scorer concentration0.320.26
season ppg1.421.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.60
skill v10.94-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.20
squad age27.4827.28
state index-0.39-0.91
sterile dominance v11.230.03
threat rate (last 10)0.180.24
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.160.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20