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Juve Stabia 2–3 Livorno

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Jun 26, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Robilotta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia win43%2.30
Draw29%3.36
Livorno win28%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Livorno −0.2550%1.93
Juve Stabia −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Giacomo Ricci · Juve Stabia
5'🟨Manuel Marras · Livorno
19'🟨Francesco Forte · Juve Stabia
21'🟨Gennaro Ruggiero · Livorno
21'⚽Giacomo Calò · Juve Stabia
27'🟨Karamoko Cissé · Juve Stabia
42'🟨Pasquale Fazio · Juve Stabia
59'⚽Davide Agazzi · Livorno
60'⚽Manuel Marras · Livorno
61'🟥Luca Germoni · Juve Stabia
73'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots11
3On target3
5Corners4
22Fouls27
6Yellow cards2
2Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricJuve StabiaLivorno
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.560.52
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Romeo Menti
Giacomo Calò
· Juve Stabia
84'🟥Antonio Porcino · Livorno
86'⚽Karamoko Cissé · Juve Stabia
87'🟨Giacomo Ricci · Juve Stabia
87'🟥Giacomo Ricci · Juve Stabia
90'⚽Matija Boben · Livorno
coach days1091.00146.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.751.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.360.41
elo1370.721313.81
elo momentum (last 5)-5.30-0.17
eye test v1-0.54-0.64
eye trend v10.170.28
first sub minute (last 10)58.7058.40
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.37
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
keeper form v10.670.61
league points36.0018.00
league rank14.0020.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4077.60
possession avg (last 5)50.8047.40
rest days6.136.13
scorer concentration0.280.30
season ppg1.240.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.60-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.4011.60
skill v1-0.27-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)6.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.00
squad age28.0125.39
state index-0.56-0.76
sterile dominance v10.230.06
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80