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Cosenza 2–1 Virtus Entella

← Serie B 2019 · Sat, Jun 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Volpi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza win40%2.55
Draw31%3.10
Virtus Entella win29%3.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella −0.2554%1.80
Cosenza −0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Jacopo Dezi · Virtus Entella
25'🟨Riccardo Idda · Cosenza
31'⚽Mirko Bruccini · Cosenza
35'⚽Mirko Carretta · Cosenza
68'🟨Mirko Bruccini · Cosenza
89'🟨Michele Currarino · Virtus Entella
89'🟨— · Virtus Entella
90'🟨Franck Kanouté · Cosenza
90'🟥Raúl Asencio · Cosenza
90'⚽Fabrizio Poli · Virtus Entella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots19
11On target10
7Corners8
25Fouls13
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaVirtus Entella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.470.47
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days1297.00720.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.441.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.29
dominance (last 5)0.530.57
elo1400.921442.27
elo momentum (last 5)-11.70-26.15
eye test v1-0.580.22
eye trend v1-0.050.29
first sub minute (last 10)53.7051.80
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.680.56
league points24.0038.00
league rank19.0010.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6044.80
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.260.28
season ppg0.861.36
shot diff avg (last 5)1.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.8013.40
skill v10.20-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.60
squad age28.1826.91
state index-0.51-0.52
sterile dominance v1-0.07-1.02
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.250.36
threat rate (last 5)0.270.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00